Historical Background: The Devastating War in Tigray
From November 2020 to late 2022, Tigray endured a brutal war that left hundreds of thousands dead, displaced millions, and decimated the region’s infrastructure. Though a peace agreement was signed in November 2022, many of the core issues remain unresolved. Notably, Eritrean forces—who played a central role in the conflict—were not included in the agreement and continue to maintain a military presence in parts of Tigray, sparking widespread tension and fear of renewed violence.
Political Instability and Division Within Tigray
Following the peace agreement, a federally recognized Interim Regional Administration of Tigray (IRAT) was formed under the leadership of Getachew Reda. However, deep divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led to a major political crisis. In October 2024, former TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael led a factional coup, removing Getachew and his allies from power. This internal power struggle further weakened governance and created confusion about Tigray’s leadership.
In early 2025, Debretsion launched a new political party, Tigray Democratic Solidarity (Semeret), positioning himself against the existing interim administration. In contrast, Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede, the current interim president aligned with the peace camp, publicly reiterated Tigray’s commitment to peaceful resolution and non-provocation.
Eritrea’s Influence and Rising Suspicion
There is growing concern that Eritrea is exploiting Tigray’s internal divisions to reassert its influence in the region. The federal government of Ethiopia has accused Debretsion’s camp of forging a quiet alliance with Eritrea, potentially undermining the peace process. This has created a highly sensitive situation, with accusations of secret cooperation between Tigrayan dissidents and the Eritrean regime.
The issue of Eritrean occupation remains a sticking point. Residents of Tigray continue to call for the full withdrawal of Eritrean forces and the return of territories that remain under foreign control.
Rising Armed Threats Across the Region
In addition to instability in Tigray, Ethiopia faces continued unrest in Amhara and growing concerns in the Afar region. In Amhara, multiple armed Fano militia groups remain active, resisting federal control and increasing pressure on the government’s security apparatus. While Afar has not seen large-scale activity linked to Tigrayan factions, tensions along regional borders remain volatile.
These developments, combined with internal political fractures, have created a dangerous environment where localized conflict could easily spiral into broader warfare.
Military Buildup and War Preparations
Recent reports indicate that all three actors—Ethiopia, Eritrea, and factions within Tigray—have increased their military presence along shared borders. Intelligence and diplomatic observers have warned that the region is on the brink of a new war, with only minor provocations potentially triggering a large-scale confrontation.
The federal government remains deeply concerned about Eritrea’s movements and its suspected support for Debretsion’s faction. In parallel, Eritrean rhetoric has grown more aggressive, and cross-border tensions are rising by the day.
What’s at Stake
• Legacy of suffering: The Tigray war left deep scars. Renewed conflict would be catastrophic for the region and its people.
• Political uncertainty: Tigray’s internal divide continues to destabilize the peace process and democratic transition.
• Eritrean interference: Eritrea’s alleged support for certain Tigrayan factions undermines national sovereignty and risks reigniting full-scale war.
• National security risks: Armed groups in Amhara and unrest in neighboring regions stretch Ethiopia’s security response capacity.
• Urgent diplomacy needed: Without immediate de-escalation, Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa may plunge into another humanitarian crisis.
Final Outlook
The signs are clear: military preparations are underway, political rhetoric is heating up, and trust between key actors is nearly nonexistent. While many still hope for peace, the region is alarmingly close to returning to war. The next few weeks will be critical for Ethiopia’s future. The choice is between diplomacy or disaster.
